Here’s What You Need to Know About Industrial Production That Big Media...
U.S. Industrial Production Ratchets Up in July trumpeted the Wall Street Journal on Friday. It added that, “Industrial production, a measure of output in the manufacturing, utilities and mining...
View ArticleThere Is No Summer Rebound——The US Economy Is Flat And Inventories Are...
Last week, industrial production ticked higher but only somewhat while this week the Empire Fed manufacturing survey has caused extensive jitters to extend at least another week. Given those somewhat...
View ArticleCanary On The Amazon——Brazil’s Plunging Economy Reflects The Intensifying...
Setting aside wholesale financial reasons and implications, the crash now in the Brazilian real is not good for anyone. It is, obviously, a disaster for Brazilians but the utter implosion heading...
View ArticleNot China’s Alone
There is no bottom in sight yet for China. Despite five interest rate cuts and traditional interpretations of monetary “stimulus”, the economy continues to decelerate beyond mainline understanding....
View ArticleHow Can China Blame Exports, Too?
Concurrent to more survey-based indications of a US manufacturing slowdown, economists have been quick to blame overseas problems such that it leaves a “strong” US economy as a baseline. On the other...
View ArticleThe US Soft Patch Deepens——Weak CapEx Belies Escape Velocity Meme
A gauge of U.S. business investment plans fell for a second straight month in September, pointing to a sharp slowdown in economic growth and casting more doubts on whether the Federal Reserve will...
View ArticleGlobal Deflation Intensifies——Brazil’s Economy Is In Freefall
The problem with Brazil is that its central bank has done everything the monetary textbook requires of it. Setting aside that Banco itself is a literal mishmash of public and private interests (what...
View ArticleCanada Hits The Skids Again
Despite everything that happened in July and August throughout the financial world, there remained a tendency to simply dismiss it as anomalous. That was curious in and of itself, but that the global...
View ArticleMore Signs Of Recession——In Credit, Production And Sales
The Fed’s industrial production series also includes estimates on total motor vehicle assemblies. Auto sales in general have been one of the only bright spots in the economy, especially since the 2012...
View ArticleSinking Physical Crude Demand Contradicts Fed’s Bouyant Economic Outlook
Like industrial production, the condition of oil inventory in the US was updated today in contradiction of the expectations driving Federal Reserve models expecting “transitory” weakness to simply pass...
View ArticleThe Inescapable Trap of the ‘Dollar Short’——– Brazil Edition
For bond ratings agencies, finding a bottom is pretty much their job. In other words, they are supposed to map out and understand, as best as may be possible through regressions and equations, the...
View ArticleChina’s Ugly GDP Report—–Coping And Denial
China’s economic update for December and Q4 were uniformly ugly. GDP fell to 6.8% and 6.9% for the full year. Industrial production was back below 6%, estimated at just 5.9% and once more denying all...
View ArticleThe Chinese Economy Is Sinking, Not Transitioning
It makes for quite the juxtaposition, though perhaps not so jarring given that global banks are still enormous and disparate operations. On the one hand, Citigroup’s CEO was eminently confident from...
View ArticleRecession Ahead: Faltering Industrial Production Trend’s Leaving Little Doubt
Industrial production fell 0.7% in January 2016 which was slightly better than the (revised) -1.9% estimated for December. It was, however, the third consecutive month showing a decline and, more...
View ArticleChicago, Brazil and Maybe No ‘V’?
The Chicago Business Barometer fell sharply again in February, almost exactly as it had risen sharply in January. In fact, for the past year that has been the dominant pattern of sharp alternating...
View ArticleThe China Boom Grinds Ever Slower——-January/February Data Update
Industrial production for the combined January/February period in China fell to just 5.4%, matching the lowest growth rate of the past fourteen years. Only the January/February 2002 IP rate was lower,...
View ArticleRecession Signal Alert——-Industrial Production Drops For A Fourth Straight Month
US Industrial Production contracted for the fourth consecutive month in February, falling 1.03% year-over-year. It was the third drop of more than 1% in those four months, leaving the 6-month average...
View ArticleThe Evidence Piles Up—–Japan’s Economy Keeps Shrinking, Abenomics An Abject...
Household spending in February 2016 in Japan rose year-over-year for the first time in six months. That was the sum total of any good economic news for the monetary-stricken economy, and it doesn’t...
View ArticleWill Autos Be The Recession Trigger?
What is most amazing about the current “manufacturing recession” is that it has occurred while automobile production has remained rather stout. That would suggest the state of production beyond motor...
View ArticleContext Please——-China Isn’t “Recovering”
You can always tell what kind of monthly variation any economic account provides from the commentary by which it is described. And there are, apparently, only two options: upward variations mean...
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